It’s Time for Canada’s Mark Carney to Think Big on Climate, Experts Say

Prime Minister Mark Carney clinched a narrow win against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party in Canada’s historic election on Monday night, securing a fourth term for the Liberal Party. The election was framed as a fight against U.S. President Donald Trump and his threats against the country—with all other issues falling by the wayside. Even Carney’s climate background wasn’t enough to put climate action on center stage—one recent poll found that climate change wasn’t among the top 10 priorities for Canadian voters.

It’s a big shift from previous elections. “It doesn't really seem like this election was a climate change election,” says Jennifer Winter, professor at the school of public policy at the University of Calgary whose research focuses on climate policies. “The two overriding narratives, have been Trump and U.S. tariffs and its effect on Canada, and then the other predominant narrative is cost of living.”  

But the Liberal Party’s win means that Canada will likely stay the course on many existing environmental policies—including a zero-emission vehicle sales mandate along with clean electricity and fuel regulations. “In most respects, it is a continuation of a slate of policies that were put in place by the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau,” says Kathryn Harrison, professor of political science at the University of British Columbia.

Carney’s career has often straddled the line between the private sector and the climate fight. He became a U.N. Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance in 2019, and in 2021 launched the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, an initiative aimed at bringing together financial institutions to support the transition to a net-zero economy. His experiences were reflected in many of the Liberal’s campaign proposals, Harrison says. “A couple of the items you see in the platform, [like] that commitment to sustainable investment guidelines, is very consistent with Carney's work as a special envoy,” she says. 

Carney, however, has vowed to make Canada “an energy superpower”—both in clean energy, as well as oil and gas. Harrison says the shift comes as Canada is looking to distance itself from importing natural resources from the U.S. “He seemed to be envisioning a pipeline that would serve Canada's own oil demand, rather than proposing new pipelines to get more of Canada's oil to the coast or to export it to [other] markets.”

And after first taking office when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down in March, one of Carney’s first moves was to scrap the country’s carbon tax, a divisive climate policy that placed an added fee on consumers using fossil fuels. The initiative was often blamed for rising costs of living in the country—even though 80% of families received more money in rebates than they paid in the tax. 

An essential next step for Carney, experts say, will be to find a replacement for the carbon tax. “It opens up the question of if Canada is still going to meet its emissions reduction goals without consumer emissions pricing, and what would replace it,” says Green. “I think this is one of the key things that will be answered in the coming weeks and months after the election.” 

Some, meanwhile, believe the government needs to think bigger. Canada wasn’t on track to meet emission reduction standards even with the carbon tax, says Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, who notes that the new leadership could provide momentum for Canada to embrace more ambitious policies. “There's a number of policies that need to be improved, that need to be added to the table to get the country back on track for the scale of emission reductions that we committed to under the powers agreement,” says Smith. While much debate has focused on the future of the consumer carbon tax, he recommends Canada instead focuses on solutions with greater potential for reducing emissions, like accelerated methane reduction policies or the creation of a national carbon market.  “The question needs to be broadened.”