The last time Greta Thunberg posted a message on Twitter, now X, was on Nov. 27, and she did not mention climate, or global warming, or heating, though she did mention ecocide. It was about the oppression of the Kurds in Kurdistan.

Ms. Thunberg, with 5.3 million X followers, became the public face of youth-led climate activism when she was in her mid-teens – she is now 21 – and appears to have taken her foot off the climate gas pedal in recent months.

She is not alone. Governments everywhere seem burnt out on climate change, even as temperatures continue to set records and climate emergencies abound (the global average temperature reached an all-time high last July 22). Ditto investors and average citizens. Climate last year fell off global political and fiscal agendas and may not reappear any time soon.

Take the annual United Nations-sponsored climate conferences. Can anyone remember what was accomplished, if anything, at November’s COP29 (Conference of the Parties) in Azerbaijan? Or any of the previous ones? COP21 in Paris in 2015 was the last climate summit that made global headlines, that made a genuine breakthrough and finished on an optimistic note. The Paris Agreement, which applied to all countries, sought to limit the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5 C over preindustrial levels.

Ditto the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, also last November. Climate change was barely mentioned at the event even though the collection of the richest countries, which includes coal-mad China, collectively spew out some 80 per cent of global greenhouse gases, and their emissions are rising. Since the first COP in 1995, emissions are up by more than a third.

There is no high-profile credible voice any more to warn about the existential threats of relentless global warming. Al Gore, a former U.S. vice-president who was co-winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for his climate activism, was the last heavyweight on the global climate stage. Powerful money managers such as BlackRock and State Street are rolling back their ESG – environmental, social and governance – fund offerings while their bosses rarely utter the term “ESG” any more.

Why is this happening even as the 1.5-degree goal appears to be wishful thinking and 2-degree warming seems inevitable?

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service last summer said that global average temperatures reached or exceeded 1.5 C above preindustrial levels every month between July, 2023, and last June. At 2 degrees, scientists have warned that coral reefs will disappear, ice-free Arctic summers will become common, ocean levels will rise by more than half a metre (which would flood coastal cities) and storms, heat waves and droughts will become extreme, putting hundreds of millions of people – or more – in danger of chronic water scarcity and potentially making parts of the planet uninhabitable.

The rise of the right-wing parties certainly is propelling the climate retreat. U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is embracing a “drill, baby, drill” agenda and has promised to terminate what he called President Joe Biden’s Green New Deal once Mr. Trump enters the White House later this month. During his first term as president, he pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement and killed or diluted a dollop of climate regulations. His pick for energy secretary, oil industry executive Chris Wright, said last year, “There is no climate crisis, and we’re not in the midst of an energy transition, either.”

The story is similar elsewhere. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has called the European Union’s 2035 target to end the sale of internal combustion engine cars “self-destructive” because it would hand the death sentence to the traditional European auto industry, with almost 14 million employees, according to EU data. In Argentina, President Javier Milei, an admirer of Mr. Trump who is often referred to as a right-wing libertarian, has called climate change a “socialist lie.” He downgraded the environment ministry, boycotted COP29 and is pursuing a pro-mining and pro-drilling campaign. In Germany, conservative Opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who is on course to win a February snap election, has pledged to downgrade Germany’s ambitious climate policies.

Green parties have lost ground in European elections. The era that saw millions of protesters take to the streets to demand action to fight climate change seems over. Sales of electric vehicles are slowing. Yet climate hypocrisy is alive and well in Europe. For instance, some of the same politicians who support the demise of gasoline and diesel cars also favour punishing tariffs on cheap imported Chinese EVs. The EU does make EVs, but most models are unaffordable to average families. Without inexpensive EVs, the EU’s net-zero goals will be hard to meet.

The rise of the right means that the climate agenda will almost certainly stay in reverse – all the more so if voters in the West decide that tight emission controls will only transfer manufacturing jobs to China. As far as most Westerners are concerned, climate disasters happen to someone else.

Only when the pain and misery come close to home will the picture change. In recent history, it was extreme and deadly emergencies that triggered quick corrective action. The COVID-19 pandemic saw vaccines produced in record time, for example. With the planet warming rapidly, the climate emergency is bound to come soon, as Ms. Thunberg had warned.