Winter along the lines of November? A weather drama

 Winter along the lines of November? A weather drama

 The month of November has changed the previous pattern: rainy weather phases have been replaced by subtropical anticyclones coming from North Africa, leading to a significant alteration of seasonal averages. Temperatures have often remained above average

Abnormal heat with serious consequences

The month that is ending is yet another example of climate tropicalization, a weather phenomenon that manifests with characteristics typical of tropical areas, such as torrential rains, Mediterranean cyclones, and a general rise in temperatures.   Recent events, such as the devastating flood in Valencia, are a wake-up call for what could increasingly occur in an unstable climate.

We in Italy have also had major problems in this regard.  

Dull winter?

Projections for the coming weeks highlight the possible return of a powerful Anticyclone, capable of annihilating cold waves.

At the same time, the Polar Vortex is strengthening, which is bad news. This atmospheric phenomenon tends to confine cold air masses to high latitudes, leaving the Bel Paese dry…   This situation raises a fundamental question: when will the real Winter begin? The hypothesis of a period dominated by high pressure, although still uncertain, appears to be a concrete possibility.

Such a scenario would have significant consequences, such as the persistence of drought in some areas and an increased risk of extreme weather events with the arrival of Spring.  

A dynamic season is needed

A Winter characterized by meteorological dynamism is essential to restore climate balance.

Well-distributed rains and abundant snowfall in the mountains are crucial to ensure sufficient water reserves.

Otherwise, a static winter dominated by high pressure could worsen the water situation in the affected areas and perhaps start another one where there is now water, such as in the North.  

Anticyclone for December

Despite the persistent presence of High Pressure, there is still room for a change in atmospheric dynamics.

December could represent a turning point, with the possibility of cold incursions from the Arctic and a return to more typical Winter weather conditions. But for now, we are just waiting for further signals in this regard.