Increasingly hot! A worrying future for November’s weather

f in another article we highlighted how snow even at low altitudes is not really an exception in November, it should also be noted that in Italy, in recent years, the phenomenon of autumn heat waves has become increasingly frequent, generating an unusual climate especially in the month of November.

Contrary to what happened in the past, when this period represented the beginning of cold temperatures and a harsher climate, today November often sees temperatures similar to those more typical of early autumn, causing concern among both the population and experts.

This phenomenon, indicative of a global climate change, occurs due to a series of atmospheric factors that alter seasonal dynamics.  

and its role in out-of-season heat waves

One of the main causes of autumn heat waves in Europe and Italy is the increasing presence of the African anticyclone.

This mass of high pressure, usually dominant in the summer period, expands towards the Mediterranean even in autumn and sometimes even in winter.

This anticyclone, originating from North Africa, brings unusually high temperatures and stable weather conditions that prevent the arrival of cold currents from northern Europe, thus creating prolonged out-of-season heat situations.

The typical “St.

Martin’s summer” of mid-November, once limited to a few days of good weather, now extends for weeks, transforming entire autumn periods into a climate more akin to that of September.  

Recent episodes of abnormal heat: the cases of November 2022 and 2019

Autumn heat waves have now left evident marks on the Italian climate.

In November 2022, many cities, from Milan to Rome, recorded temperatures up to 24°C, well above seasonal averages, while in Naples and Palermo thermometers reached peaks close to 30°C, unusual levels for this period.

Even in 2019, the thermal anomaly brought temperatures above the average by about 4-5°C in various areas of Italy, confirming that autumn heat waves are no longer a rare event.  

The impact of global warming: the Mediterranean as a “hot zone”

The phenomenon of heat waves in November fits into a broader context of global warming, with Europe warming at a faster rate than other areas of the world.

Since the pre-industrial period, the average global temperature has increased by about 1.1°C, and the Mediterranean basin represents one of the most sensitive areas to this change, with a thermal increase that exceeds the global average.

The effects of this warming are manifested not only with out-of-season heat waves but also with changes in seasonal climate patterns that alter natural balances.  

Impacts on the environment and economy: crops, biodiversity, and winter tourism at risk

The environmental and economic consequences of these abnormal heat waves are significant.

Natural ecosystems are affected by these temperature changes, as many plant and animal species regulate their biological cycles based on the seasonal climate.

For example, plants can be induced to sprout or bloom out of season due to prolonged heat, then exposing themselves to the risks of sudden frosts.

This imbalance impacts agriculture, which has to face unpredictable phenomena, and biodiversity, with migratory or hibernating animals struggling to adapt to altered temperatures.

The winter tourism industry also suffers the consequences of the unusual climate.

Milder winters and a lack of snow put mountain activities at risk, with ski resorts, especially those at lower altitudes, having to invest heavily in artificial snow technologies.

The winter of 2022-2023, for example, saw a severe snow deficit in the Alps starting as early as December, forcing many resorts to delay opening or reduce activities.

This situation puts pressure on mountain economies, which must find new solutions to adapt to a shorter and more uncertain winter season.  

A phenomenon that invites us to reflect on the urgency of change

The abnormal heat waves in November represent a worrying indicator of how rapidly the climate is changing.

The increase in temperatures during periods that were once considered cool or cold signals a planet in deep transformation.

The scientific evidence is clear: climate change is accelerating, and autumn abnormal heat phenomena could become increasingly frequent and intense, with long-term repercussions on our lifestyle and ecosystems.

The phenomenon of heat waves in November in Italy and other areas of southern Europe reminds us of the need to adopt sustainable environmental policies, reducing human impact on the climate.

The adoption of concrete measures to limit the increase in global temperatures is essential to prevent these changes from becoming irreversible and to ensure that the heat of November, currently exceptional, does not become a stable climatic norm in the near future.